After months of subtle signals, the shift is no longer theoretical — home prices in Greater Phoenix are officially falling.

For much of 2024 and early 2025, we watched active listings linger longer, price cuts increase, and seller concessions grow. But until recently, closed sale prices hadn’t reflected the softness. Now, that’s changing — and quickly.

Prices Are Dropping, and the Trend Is Gaining Speed

In just the past month, average closed sale prices per square foot dropped from $316.01 to $302.40 — a 4.3% decline. Median sales prices are also trending down, sliding from $465,000 to $445,000 in just five weeks.

Sellers are receiving, on average, 97.7% of their final list price, compared to 97.9% a year ago, and concessions are rising fast. Real negotiation is back — and this time, buyers have leverage.

Meanwhile, the Market Index now sits at 77, well within buyer’s market territory, with inventory rising and demand holding steady but not accelerating.

What’s Behind the Market Shift?

Several forces are reshaping the local housing landscape:

• Luxury market slowdowns, with $1M+ contracts dropping for six weeks straight

• Volatile financial markets, with the S&P 500 down nearly 10% and Bitcoin down 23%

• Investor retreat, as multifamily permits hit their lowest level since 2019

• Rising inventory, which is outpacing steady buyer demand

Together, these dynamics are tipping the scale — and the effects are now showing up in pricing.

Market Snapshot: Varies by City and Price Point

Across Greater Phoenix, the experience depends on where you are:

• 6 cities remain in seller’s market territory, but 4 are extremely weak

• 5 cities are balanced

• 6 cities are firmly buyer’s markets

Tempe, Gilbert, Cave Creek, Scottsdale, and Paradise Valley show the most weakening, while Buckeye and Avondale are holding firmer for sellers.

Inventory and Buyer Leverage

Days of Inventory (DOI) has climbed to 106.7, up from the long-term average of 94, and continues to rise.

• Pre-pandemic: Inventory hovered below 94 days

• Pandemic peak: Inventory dropped to 20–30 days

• Today: Buyers have more choices, more leverage, and time to think

If DOI crosses 140, buyer leverage will significantly increase across nearly all segments.

What Buyers Should Know Right Now

Buyer activity is steady, especially in the $250K–$500K price range, with FHA loan applications up 6% nationally.

• Homes priced between $300K–$400K are closing at 99% of list

• $400K–$500K homes are closing around 98.6%

• On a $450K home, buyers are typically negotiating ~$6,300 off list plus $10K+ in seller-paid closing costs

🎯 You have more options. More negotiating power. And real opportunity if you’re prepared.

What Sellers Need to Do Now

Selling in today’s market requires more than a sign in the yard.

• Price reductions are up 68% year-over-year

• Luxury contracts are slowing, and even “hot” neighborhoods are seeing longer days on market

• Buyers are expecting move-in ready homes — or steep concessions

📌 Strategy, prep, and pricing are essential. Sellers who don’t adapt risk sitting.

Final Thoughts: It’s Not Just a Shift — It’s a New Market

The waiting is over. The Phoenix housing market has turned. While this isn’t a crash, it’s a real correction, and it’s rewarding buyers who are clear-headed and ready.

Sellers who cling to last year’s pricing may struggle, while those who adapt can still succeed.

Mortgage rates and market conditions remain volatile — the window of opportunity could narrow again, so now’s the time to get strategic.

🎧 Prefer to Listen?

Catch the full breakdown on the latest episode of
🎙 The House of Ravenscroft Podcast
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You’ll hear deeper insight, real examples, and commentary on what this market shift means for your financial strategy and next move.

📅 Let’s Talk

If you're buying, selling, relocating, or just wondering how this affects your current home or investment plan, now is the perfect time to build a custom strategy.

📆 Schedule a time to chat, ask questions, or walk through your options — no pressure, just clarity.